What this blog is about

(Jan 12, 2011): Adding matters of Indian and Pakistani history to this blog.

Pakistan Census 2017

Provisional census results put Pakistan’s population at 207.774 million

Shown below are the Pakistan census results over the years (the dots) and the low(blue), red(high) and constant-fertility(green) variants of the United Nations population projects for Pakistan made in 2012.

 
 Pakistan's annual population growth rate is said to be 2% - 2.4%.
(2% comes from the Google compilation of data as the rate in 2016; 2.4% is the growth rate averaged from 1998 to 2017.)

At a 2% growth rate, and at 207.774 million in 2017, Pakistan in 2020 will be 220.5 million strong. This is above the constant-fertility variant of the 2012 UN population projection.


The 2012 UN table is here:

Low variant		High variant		Constant-fertility variant
Year	Value	Year	Value	Year	Value
1950	37542	1950	37542	1950	37542
1955	41109	1955	41109	1955	41109
1960	45920	1960	45920	1960	45920
1965	51993	1965	51993	1965	51993
1970	59383	1970	59383	1970	59383
1975	68483	1975	68483	1975	68483
1980	80493	1980	80493	1980	80493
1985	95470	1985	95470	1985	95470
1990	111845	1990	111845	1990	111845
1995	127347	1995	127347	1995	127347
2000	144522	2000	144522	2000	144522
2005	158645	2005	158645	2005	158645
2010	173593	2010	173593	2010	173593
2015	187919	2015	191378	2015	192422
2020	200540	2020	210189	2020	213758
2025	211629	2025	229589	2025	237213
2030	221103	2030	247779	2030	261599
2035	228766	2035	264967	2035	287169
2040	234396	2040	281781	2040	314904
2045	237695	2045	298374	2045	345569
2050	238538	2050	314272	2050	379242
2055	237045	2055	328856	2055	415670
2060	233311	2060	341769	2060	454747
2065	227493	2065	353298	2065	496968
2070	219755	2070	363895	2070	543245
2075	210376	2075	373869	2075	594497
2080	199757	2080	383325	2080	651358
2085	188372	2085	392285	2085	714296
2090	176629	2090	400837	2090	783759
2095	164873	2095	409175	2095	860368
2100	153363	2100	417464	2100	944843

Pakistan population projections

The preliminary count of population from all the land areas controlled by Pakistan as per the abandoned Pakistan census of 2011 was 197 million, per leaked preliminary figures.

In 2017, a census was conducted and the results were to be released July 31st or so.  However, after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to resign over corruption charges, the release of the census figures is in doubt, it may be November.   What we know of the census is

Census Coordinator Habibullah Khattak told BBC {Urdu} in an interview that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) {had completed the census process and that} the country’s population can be between 210 to 220 million

The last completed census of Pakistan was in 1998, which showed a population of 130.9 million.

The chart below shows population projections from the United Nations from 2012, plus the Pakistan actual figures up to 1998, and the 2011 and 2017 census leaks.  The 2017 range of 210-220 million is shown as two dots.

As is dismaying clear, Pakistan continues to range above the constant fertility population projection.

Pakistan Census 2017 - population 210-220 million

The data gathering for Pakistan's census 2017 has completed; the first official numbers are expected by July.  However back in 2011-12, the data was gathered, a preliminary figure of 192 million was rumored, and then the census was abandoned.  So it remains to be seen if this census will be more successful.

Already, the news is  "Initial estimates after Census 2017 put population at 21-22 crores", i.e., 210-220 million.   The Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17 from the Finance Ministry of Pakistan puts the population of Pakistan at 199.71 million.

The 2015 United Nations projections with various assumptions give the following estimates for Pakistan's population in 2017:

Variant                          Population
Low                               196.217 million
Medium                         196.744 million
High                               197.272 million
Constant Fertility          197.315 million

Another way of looking at it is that per the constant fertility projection, Pakistan was to reach 214 million in 2020.  So the rumors today, like in 2012, suggest that the official numbers are a gross underestimate.

PS: 

1940: Ahmadi membership in the Muslim League

From "Punjab Politics 1940-1943 Strains of War : Governors' Fortnightly Reports and other Key Documents", compiled and edited by Lionel Carter.

Letter from Sir Henry Craik, Governor of Punjab, to the Viceroy, the Marquess of Linlithgow, March 25, 1940, excerpt:

4. I had an interesting talk this morning with Pir Akbar Ali, a Unionist member of our Assembly, who belongs to the Ahmaddiya community.  He was not present at the Subjects Committee meeting on Saturday night when Sikander* made his long speech, but had been told by some of those who had heard it that it was most impressive.  He was present at the open session last night and told me that there was no hostile demonstration against Sikander.  This is not altogether confirmed by Bourne's information; but it is certainly correct that the atmosphere last night was much better than on the previous day.

Pir Akbar Ali gave me two items of information which may interest you.   The Ahmadis, he said, have always considered the Khaksar movement a dangerous one and not a single Ahmadi has joined it.   The second item was that Ahmadis as a body have not been allowed by the religious head of their movement to join the Muslim League.  Akbar Ali himself has been allowed to join as a member of the Unionist Party for a term of six months only.   The question of whether his followers should be allowed to join the League is, I understand, shortly to be considered by the head of the community.

* Sir Sikander Hyat Khan, Premier of Punjab Province.

Self-defeating practices of liberals

Taimur Rahman on the self-defeating practices of Pakistani liberals:

1) Liberals are unable to develop an awami (popular) culture.
2) Liberals elevate the principle of individualism to a dogma.
3) Liberals support an apolitical form of politics.
4) Conclusion: The main strategy of liberals is to convince the ruling class to become liberal.

 Detailed read at the link, or below:

Imtiaz Gul on Incredible Pakistan

In the Friday Times, Imtiaz Gul pens "Why the World Does Not Believe Us"

Mistrust of Pakistan’s counterterrorism campaign and finger-pointing by neighbours will only stop when Pakistan removes and neutralizes all sources of direct or indirect interference in Afghanistan and India.