Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Pakistan population projections

The preliminary count of population from all the land areas controlled by Pakistan as per the abandoned Pakistan census of 2011 was 197 million, per leaked preliminary figures.

In 2017, a census was conducted and the results were to be released July 31st or so.  However, after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had to resign over corruption charges, the release of the census figures is in doubt, it may be November.   What we know of the census is

Census Coordinator Habibullah Khattak told BBC {Urdu} in an interview that the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) {had completed the census process and that} the country’s population can be between 210 to 220 million

The last completed census of Pakistan was in 1998, which showed a population of 130.9 million.

The chart below shows population projections from the United Nations from 2012, plus the Pakistan actual figures up to 1998, and the 2011 and 2017 census leaks.  The 2017 range of 210-220 million is shown as two dots.

As is dismaying clear, Pakistan continues to range above the constant fertility population projection.

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Pakistan Census 2017 - population 210-220 million

The data gathering for Pakistan's census 2017 has completed; the first official numbers are expected by July.  However back in 2011-12, the data was gathered, a preliminary figure of 192 million was rumored, and then the census was abandoned.  So it remains to be seen if this census will be more successful.

Already, the news is  "Initial estimates after Census 2017 put population at 21-22 crores", i.e., 210-220 million.   The Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-17 from the Finance Ministry of Pakistan puts the population of Pakistan at 199.71 million.

The 2015 United Nations projections with various assumptions give the following estimates for Pakistan's population in 2017:

Variant                          Population
Low                               196.217 million
Medium                         196.744 million
High                               197.272 million
Constant Fertility          197.315 million

Another way of looking at it is that per the constant fertility projection, Pakistan was to reach 214 million in 2020.  So the rumors today, like in 2012, suggest that the official numbers are a gross underestimate.


Saturday, January 28, 2017

1940: Ahmadi membership in the Muslim League

From "Punjab Politics 1940-1943 Strains of War : Governors' Fortnightly Reports and other Key Documents", compiled and edited by Lionel Carter.

Letter from Sir Henry Craik, Governor of Punjab, to the Viceroy, the Marquess of Linlithgow, March 25, 1940, excerpt:

4. I had an interesting talk this morning with Pir Akbar Ali, a Unionist member of our Assembly, who belongs to the Ahmaddiya community.  He was not present at the Subjects Committee meeting on Saturday night when Sikander* made his long speech, but had been told by some of those who had heard it that it was most impressive.  He was present at the open session last night and told me that there was no hostile demonstration against Sikander.  This is not altogether confirmed by Bourne's information; but it is certainly correct that the atmosphere last night was much better than on the previous day.

Pir Akbar Ali gave me two items of information which may interest you.   The Ahmadis, he said, have always considered the Khaksar movement a dangerous one and not a single Ahmadi has joined it.   The second item was that Ahmadis as a body have not been allowed by the religious head of their movement to join the Muslim League.  Akbar Ali himself has been allowed to join as a member of the Unionist Party for a term of six months only.   The question of whether his followers should be allowed to join the League is, I understand, shortly to be considered by the head of the community.

* Sir Sikander Hyat Khan, Premier of Punjab Province.